As we close out the 2008, we look forward to 2009 and another year of new ideas and great technology. Here are the trends we’ll be watching this year:
Business models – We think because of the current economic client and funding environment companies will be forced to focus on the business side of running a business in 2009. Closing the doors because you run out of cash is not fun for anyone. Investors will expect a real business model from startups and one that doesn’t start with, “Once we have 50,000 users…” We saw this start to happen last year at a facebook meet-up. Several people in the audience wanted to know how the top application developers were going to monetize their success. Short of acquisition, these companies didn’t have an answer. This year, they will need one. How about charging customers who use your software? Surely, if the product is valuable, people can spare $10 a month. Look at the iTunes App Store for an example of how to do this right.
Substantive content – The Internet has truly democratized content. You can post a video, publish a book, write a blog, become an expert, and really put any content you want online as soon as it’s done. But now, we consumers of content spend a lot of time searching for something worth reading let alone finding something we might remember or share. Many people who published perhaps shouldn’t have. Case in point, who better to know what’s funny or not than Will Ferrell versus some guy listing his video under comedy on YouTube? We predict in 2009 consumers of content will focus more on content they can validate or that includes some level of credibility. Sites that have credible subject matter experts or support validation of content should garner more attention in 2009.
facebook is valuable, but social networking is a feature – My non-tech family members are on facebook. The Today Show just did a segment recently about parents invading their kids playground. I even saw some not so flattering pictures of my nephew at his first year in college. facebook may not be worth 15 billion anymore, but we definitely see a new surge of friend requests and many are coming from the least likely of usual suspects. The increased user base will renew the interest in facebook and reverse the declining valuation trend. On the other hand, many other social networking sites are struggling as most companies now include common features like invites, friends, posting, sharing and profiles. We suspect it will be hard for social networking destinations to prove their value in 2009 except for those already well established like LinkedIn for business and facebook for consumers. Look to facebook, and LinkedIn, to grow their dominant position but also for them to introduce new ways to generate revenue for themselves and those around them.
Bootstrapping – As the funding pendulum swings back toward tighter controls and stringent valuations, more and more innovators will resort to the garage startup and working a day job to fund the night job. Founders won’t want to give away ownership, nor invite board members into their decision space, unless the money is good and the cost not so bad. Those caught in this downturn or in the last one in 2001 remember what it means to lose control of your company to investors. Founders will choose to retain ownership as long as possible even if their launch is delayed. We discuss the impacts of various funding models in a previous post.
The New New New Thing – It’s time for new ideas. Calling your company Web 3.0 is not a new idea (notice the version 3 in the name). Tweets. Blogs. Wikis. Community. SaaS. Good stuff that came out of Web 2.0 and before. But people are no longer interested in a new twist on an old idea. The companies that establish a new product category in 2009 will be pleasantly surprised by increased interest from people tired of hearing about yet another way to send a message or post content.
Fast launch – Is the 6 month launch obsolete? Is the 2 month launch simply a bad idea let alone doable? We provide our opinion in this post. The latest trends in development languages and technologies, especially Ruby on Rails and cloud computing, enable faster launch times through quicker process and less over-head. Development teams will be forced to make hard trade-offs this year as they struggle to meet the demands of an evolving market and shrinking development cycle.
Please let us know what you think of our predictions and what you think will be important in 2009.
January 19, 2009 at 9:16 pm |
Excellent post. Great info and I myself work for a start up Internet Marketing Company. We have been forced to apply new and innovative stratigies to boost our sales. Yes, everybody has gone to blogs, forums and community sharing and I think it is still hard to gather the data and monotize it and then make a dollar. We have went to content filled web stes with valuable information for the end user. The days of spamming and blasting are gone. This comming year in 2009, it will be great to see who has the key to the future.
April 8, 2009 at 1:59 am |
I like this post, but my only comment is about the substantive content part. I don’t believe I am a subject-matter expect by any stretch of the imagination, but I do believe I know a lot about my craft, and I am applying it in a new way eg. software sales and marketing as applied to Latin American software and product development companies. I hope you don’t mean to say that a credible source has to be already famous or recognized…
April 8, 2009 at 2:23 am |
I am actually saying more that people will start to have higher expectations from content, not that content creators need some type of credentials before they publish. What makes you an expert is what you know not what others say you know. And specifically, if a site wants return visitors, I am saying the site should foster an ability to create, publish or aggregate significant information that users want to read.
September 8, 2009 at 11:04 pm |
[...] company and that mandates we watch our expenses fastidiously. In an upcoming post reviewing our predictions for 2009, we think our prediction about back-to-basics business principals has proven true in the new [...]